march madness

It's finally here! Among other things, that means it's time for the obligatory tourney predictions post. I'll keep things easy and stick with questions I can remember from an ESPN.com poll, then maybe throw in a few of my own. I haven't kept up with college ball as much as I usually do so my predictions could be kinda flaky this year, but then again this is more luck than anything so that shouldn't make a difference. My bracket this year is a break from my normal practice in that I didn't pick many first-round upsets and nothing lower than one 12-5 (Texas A&M over Syracuse) and one 11-6 (SD St. over Indiana). But I always lose points on those anyway so it should be an improvement. Those upsets always look so nice on paper, but missing them and having a high-seed team you had exiting in the first round go deep into the tourney hurts badly.

Worst Snub
This always seems to be the hottest topic for the day or two after Selection Sunday so let's start here. It also happens to be the easiest one I think. Missouri State has by far the biggest beef with the committee. They have the highest RPI (21) of any team ever left out of the tournament and they played very well in an unusually tough Missouri Valley this year, but I guess their weak nonconference schedule and bad loss in their conference tourney opener did them in. So the committee picks Air Force instead? Wow...I'd love to hear their justification for that. I don't know but I wouldn't be at all shocked if there was a Mountain West guy on the committee. But I think there was an MVC rep on the committee too so that argument doesn't work well. In the end I think it was decided that the Valley would get four teams and that left Mo State and Creighton out in the cold.

Cincinnati could also make a case here, as they seem to have been bitten by the same bug. The Big East had eight teams in and the committee wasn't willing to make Cincy the ninth. But this year's Big East was also the toughest conference in at least the last few years of NCAA basketball, so it seems that should have been taken into account. But as it is, Cincy and Mo State are the top two seeds in the Nobody's Interested Tournament.

Some teams that absolutely can't complain are major conference washouts like Maryland, Florida State, and Michigan. All had their chance to perform in the regular season and prove all year they deserved to get in, and they didn't do it. All had mediocre seasons and were relying on their big-conference status and schedule to get them in over mid-major teams with more impressive resumes. The way I see it, a school in a major conference faces good competition all year and has a whole season to make its case. If they don't do it, they shouldn't get a second chance to prove themselves at the expense of mid-major conference teams that haven't played the same level of competition but have proven themselves against their opponents and are waiting for their opportunity to show what they can do against big-name schools. If you have two teams, one of which has played so-so against tournament and well-known competition and one of which hasn't had an opportunity to play against that competition, which should be selected? One has failed to prove itself and one hasn't had a chance. If the second gets in and fails to prove itself, it's even with the first in that regard. If the first gets in, it's playing on bought time even if it does redeem itself by pulling off some upsets because it's there only by virtue of its major-conference label and not its own impressive merits. So major conference schools making noise, just shut up and play better next year. You had your time in the spotlight and it's time to step aside and let someone else have a chance. (Believe me, here in Maryland there's been a lot of complaining I don't care to pay attention to.)

Champion
This one looks easy. Duke seems to get all the hype, but they do every year. Connecticut dominated what was by far the toughest conference and was ranked #1 for a good bit of the year, and they should be fired up after an early exit from the Big East tourney. So I like the Huskies to win it all. (By the way, the last time I took UConn to the championship they came through for me, netting me $85 in the process. But I thought that was a cake pick and I was shocked more people didn't go with what looked like an obvious champion; this one I'm not as sure about.) I think UCLA could also be here, not because I know much at all about them but because they seem to be flying under the radar and could have something to say about being largely ignored all year by the talking heads--and are good enough to say a lot. And there's always Duke, but there aren't many things in this world I hate as deeply and passionately as Duke basketball so I can't in good conscience ever pick the Devils to win it all.

First One-Seed Eliminated
Memphis, not only because they're obviously the weakest one-seed but also because they're gonna tangle with the Hogs in the second round and that'll be ugly if you're a Memphis fan. For those of you who don't know, there's some history there. Memphis and Arkansas used to play each other annually back in the Nolan days, but a few years ago, shortly after Heath took over and Arkansas was struggling, Coach Calipari didn't renew that agreement because "the programs are going in different directions" or something to that effect--basically, Arkansas wasn't worth a schedule spot. Heath shot back with something to the effect that Arkansas has the most storied recent history of any program in the country and that Calipari wouldn't play a team that was better than the lack of respect showed because he didn't want to risk having a nonconference loss to a "rebuilding team" on his Tigers' tournament resume. So...after all that, the Tigers find themselves an inflated top seed taking on a dangerous eight-seed that's been tearing up top-ten opponents lately. Although no lasting hatred seems to have developed from what appeared to be a brewing rivalry, I'm sure plenty of fans--and both coaches--remember it well. If you're Memphis, do you want to face an dangerous underdog you publicly dissed not too long ago? Sucks to be you, Tigers. I have the Razorbacks pulling off the first big upset of the tournament.

Really, any one-seed except UConn could be dropped early. Duke got shafted with a matchup with George Washington (whose getting a #8 seed that's lower than their sixth overall ranking is by far the biggest slight in recent tournament history) in the second round, so one of two very good teams will be forced to watch the Sweet 16 from home. Villanova is also a little weak I think, but they did come out of the Big East so facing several tough competitors in a row should be nothing new to them. I don't see anyone preventing them from getting to Minneapolis for the regional semi's, but Boston College should end 'Nova's run there.

Also keep in mind that this has far more to do with how the brackets play out than how good the team is. Recall the 2004 tourmanent, in which Texas was widely agreed to be the weakest top seed and the one that stole UConn's rightful spot. (Also recall that the Huskies won it all and so proved the naysayers right to some degree.) And yet the Longhorns were the only top seed in the Final Four that year, not because they had to prove their worth as much as they had easy matchups. I don't remember who they played but I do remember being upset that the weakest top seed was having all the upset luck it could ask for while the others had to play some real games. So since the Oakland bracket is loaded with weak teams, it's plenty possible the Tigers could emerge by virtue of being barely good enough to beat a few low-seeded teams. That'd be far more frustrating than watching Texas crawl to the Final Four a couple years back.

Final Four
Duke, UCLA, UConn, BC. I don't like the idea of taking Duke to Indianapolis--my gut tells me they're due for an upset--but I just don't see anyone in that bracket getting in the way. It looks like GW could be their toughest matchup, except maybe an Elite Eight clash with revenge-minded Texas who they made the mistake of running up the score on early in the year. Well, surprise, now that team is good enough to even things up by snatching Duke's Final Four slot. I've been hearing a lot about LSU, and maybe they're good but I just don't see it. I only have them in the Sweet 16 because 'Cuse is so overrated at the opposing five-seed.

Connecticut is the best team in the field and I don't see any big threats hiding in their region. North Carolina and Illinois will be tough outs, as both have Final Four experience from last year, and although I'd be tempted to take them over any other top seed I don't see them beating the Huskies. I think UAB is a very good nine-seed that could also surprise any other one-seed, but they too have the unfortunate disadvantage of being stuck in UConn's corner of the bracket.

(It's worth throwing in here that the second round games for the #1's should be interesting. I've already mentioned Arkansas sending Memphis home early, but George Washington and Alabama-Birmingham are also good enough to cause trouble. And Arizona hasn't shown much all year, but they're Arizona and their opponent ('Nova) doesn't have much experience with being a high seed in March. I wouldn't be too surprised to see multiple upsets in these games.)

I don't think Villanova is winning their region, I'm just not sure where to have them going out. But Boston College is a good team that got slighted with a #4 seed, so I think they'll get past the Wildcats and then beat Florida to join the Final Four party in Indy. Interestingly, I don't have Florida playing a higher-seeded team in any of their four games. This was also mentioned by someone on ESPN.com and I didn't think much of it, but it turns out my bracket agrees. Considering I have Georgetown beating Ohio State and BC beating 'Nova, the Gators might as well not pack road uniforms for their trip to Minneapolis. I actually hate to take Florida all the way to the Elite Eight, as I don't think they're very good and they've crashed down the stretch, but I just don't see any of their opponents being good enough either. Combine that with some tough draws for higher seeds (OSU gets G'town and Boston College isn't losing until it sees UConn in Indy) and it turns out the Gators get lucky until they play the Golden Eagles.

On to Oakland...from where I'm sitting this is by far the weakest bracket. Pittsburgh, Kansas, and UCLA are the only high seeds that aren't overrated or at least the weakest of the four same-seeded teams, so naturally I have UCLA over Pitt for a trip to Indianapolis. I have barely more than zero confidence in Gonzaga's ability to not get upset, as Indiana just sucks too much to put up any resistance, but there's no way they're getting past the Bruins. Kansas has finished strong but they get the dishonor of playing Pitt in the second round and their March ends there. Arkansas will surprise some people by beating Memphis and playing Pitt close, but Pitt is just too good to lose even to the vastly underrated Hogs. I don't know much about UCLA but they seem good and they don't get a lot of press so I like them coming out of this region.

Dark Horse
I'm probably showing my bias here, but the Hogs are a definite dark horse team. They didn't lose a single SEC game by more than five points--their seven conference losses are by a combined 19 points--and they only have one double-digit loss all season (against then-#20 Maryland, very early). They've played very well lately, having put together a nice winning streak to close the regular season that included wins against Florida and at Tennessee. They have plenty of upper classmen and a go-to player in Brewer that could carry them in times of trouble. They got a tough draw with a one-seed in the second round, but that one-seed is Memphis, who might as well have "upset us please" stitched onto their uniforms.

I also like West Virginia as a dark horse, since they have Elite Eight experience from last year and they've been ranked in the top ten this year. They're good enough to put together a run if they play to their capability. And, of course, they have a guy named Pittsnoggle on their team. If that's not some kind of good luck charm then I don't know that there is one. Others worth mentioning are Pittsburgh (did well in the grueling Big East), UCLA (can a two-seed be a dark horse?), and Boston College (better yet, can a team that everyone agrees is underrated be a dark horse?).

The Finish
Connecticut over Boston College, UCLA over Duke, UConn over UCLA 70-58. Duke crashes and burns against UCLA if they haven't already by this point in the tourney. Boston College puts up a good fight but is just overmatched against the Huskies. The championship is almost always a low-scoring affair, so I'm actually taking a risk I think by giving the champ 70 points. But I think UConn is that good. The Bruins will refuse to go away throughout but will never really threaten to beat UConn.

So there you have it. Now that the prevailing voice of wisdom in all things NCAA basketball has spoken, you may fill out your brackets accordingly. Not...if there's one way to guarantee you won't win it's to follow my advice. I've actually generally done very well or very, very bad in every pool I've entered, so I should know early how my bracket will fare. If history repeats itself I'll either be at the top contending for the pool championship or at the bottom trying to stay off the cellar floor, but nothing in between. Hopefully it'll be the former. Actually, one trend in my bracketology career is that I seem to do better if there's money involved but I stink if there's no prize, and since I'm not in any money pools this year--not by choice but because I'm not aware of any around me I could jump into--it's probably best to offload everything you just read and carefully avoid letting it influence your bracket. And if my predictions match any of yours you still have two days to make the corrections on your end.

That's right, two days til the madness begins...woohoo!


P.S. At better than 2,500 words, I think this is the longest Sword of Enlightenment post of all time. Says something about my priorities, eh?