ouch...yeah, that hurt

Two words: holy crap. And that's putting it as politely as I can. Just learned of Justice Rehnquist's death over at Fox News. That's huge news, much bigger than the Katrina blame game or the Roberts saga. My first impression is that this one really, really hurts our country. Not only does this open the potential for a Bush compromise with the left--always a scary thought given our president's alarming tendency to sell out at the drop of a few votes--but Rehnquist will be damn hard to replace. Probably impossible to replace.

O'Connor's retirement was the vacating of a moderate (at best) position on the Court. Even if Bush went with a lousy quasi-conservative nominee the court likely wouldn't get any worse, and there was plenty of room for improvement. But Dubya pulled a fast one on us all and found his principles at the right time to spring for a guy who at least has the appearance of a solid limited-government sort of fella. That move could have a decent conservative influence on the high court.

But the filling of Rehnquist's vacancy will certainly push the Court the other way. He was a conservative stalwart for decades who "fashioned decisions over the years that diluted the powers of the federal government while strengthening those of the states." And he was one of the three pillars of hope for the Supreme Court actually following the Constitution every now and then; without him we're left with only Scalia and Thomas. Much worse, getting someone in the mold of Rehnquist confirmed in today's climate would be all but impossible. Roberts' selection came as a surprise, but does anyone out there think Bush will put more political capital on the line and go with a Rehnquist Jr. as his second pick? Anyone? I didn't think so.

Then there's the appointment of the next Chief Justice. Please Lord, let it be Scalia. That would at least keep the head spot in the hands of a real judge. And while perhaps a risky political move it certainly wouldn't be as dangerous as trying to keep the Rehnquist spot in constitutionalist hands.

I still hope Dubya sticks to his guns and puts up Pryor, Brown, or someone along those lines. I'd love to see a proven staunch conservative that could give us more reason to hope sanity might one day be restored in the judicial branch. Not to mention the hand-wringing and demagoguery from the other side would be so much fun to watch. Sure, irritating and probably stressful to the brink of death for me, but fun.

And since I handicapped the last one I'll try it again, even though last time I was well off the mark. This one will be tougher since there's two spots open, making the grand total in play three and thus exposing plenty of wiggle room for Bush to work with. So, here's what will happen. Dubya smells a nice spot for a compromise and bites. But he offers up a worse one than we might have expected. He goes with Kennedy for CJ and chooses that weak conservative we were all afraid of last time, none other than Alberto Gonzales, as his nominee. So the good guys lose on both counts. Bush plays it up as an olive branch to his opponents and a commitment to not shake things up too much. The neocon brethren who have been backing Bush as if he were some sort of demigod scream and cry about how they expected more from him. We conservative naysayers get our chance to once again say, "Told ya so! That damn clown always has a compromise up his sleeve to cripple us with! See, he really is a politician above all! Suckers!!"

Am I confident in my predictions? Not so much. But one thing I would bet the house on, and that is that Bush will absolutely not give us both Thomas/Scalia for a Chief Justice and another Rehnquist for a nominee. The best we can hope for is one of two, and combined with Roberts that would give us two of three. We need better but from Dubya we should be thankful if we get that much.

Let the games begin...

UPDATE: As if to prove this is truly an earth-shaking event, Michelle Malkin even noticed despite her incessant Katrina blogging and has taken a break to say a few words. Welcome back to the world, Michelle. We missed you.

But as is customary she gives a good round-up of other blogger takes. Captain Ed makes a very good point in that a second vacancy puts pressure on the Senate to close the deal on the first one in short order and thus will probably speed up Roberts' hearings. And this would be especially true if the second nominee were seen as more conservative, in which case the Dems would be eager to move Roberts out of the way and spend their time and ammo on the next guy (or gal) in the hot seat. John Hinderaker seems to think Bush is inclined to wait for Roberts' confirmation before revealing the identity of the next nominee. This could have advantages in that the Senate would be pressed to get Roberts through and keep the whole process moving, but I'm not so sure Bush wouldn't want to at least float some other names if not name his pick outright. This would create a distraction if the Roberts hearings get too heated and would also prevent the usual suspects from gearing up for a lashing of whoever the next choice happens to be. They'd be forced to focus on one or the other, or at least be less effective in combating the progress of both, whereas waiting to name the second nominee would allow said activists to focus fully on both Roberts and whoever follows him. Getting two names out there would at least delay some of the scripted reaction to the second one and maybe the hyped-up controversy would lose some steam by the time it received full coverage.