proof that football commentators are no smarter than the rest of us

So it has been brought to my attention that some windbag(s) on ESPN have talked about the possibility of the Arkansas Razorbacks playing in the BCS National Championship Game. My first reaction is, that's bullbleep. There's a better chance of a meteor landing on Razorback Stadium than its home team playing for all the marbles. But let's do some math and see how it all falls out.

Step 1: The Hogs need to win out. This much is obvious -- like heck a two-loss team will get a shot at the championship. This would entail beating tough outs Tennessee, LSU, and Florida. But if that happens then Arkansas will have the schedule strength numbers completely in their corner. With USC and Florida on top of a loaded SEC regular season schedule, they'd be right up there with one of the toughest schedules in the land. And in BCS World that's worth points.

Step 2: Eleven of the 12 teams currently in front of Arkansas need to slide down and make some room. So, barring upsets, here's what Jesse's crystal ball says needs to happen:

Step 2a: Three of those are undefeated Big East teams that haven't played one another yet (West Virginia, Louisville, Rutgers). If they go even against each other then each would have one loss and that's one too many in the very weak Big East. But it's far more likely that impostor Rutgers will be thrashed by both Louisville and West Virginia, leaving the winner of tomorrow's top ten showdown in Louisville undefeated and alone atop the conference. (As a side note, it's been said that tomorrow's game could be the biggest ever played in the state of Kentucky. I believe it.) But even if that happens, it's very possible that schedule strength woes could keep the Big East champ out of the mix.

Step 2b: Florida and Tennessee would have been defeated by Arkansas. Check, check.

Step 2c: Notre Dame gets to walk on two more service academies before a real test at USC. The Irish need to win that season finale to keep their hopes alive. If they lose, they're out in the cold.

Step 2d: Both California and USC need to drop. Cal has cake games left minus the USC one, so it's not likely they'll lose more than one more. That one needs to be the Trojans. But if USC wins that then they need to lose to either Oregon or UCLA. (Notre Dame is also on the schedule, but ND needs that loss -- see above.) But both the Ducks and Bruins have been upstarts during the latter half of the season, so that's possible. A huge reach, but possible nonetheless.

Step 2e: Texas has some potential upsets left on its schedule, with Oklahoma State and Texas A&M both remaining, not to mention the conference championship. It's not likely they'll lose any of them, but again, it's possible. And this is Texas we're talking about. Before miraculously not choking last season they were a posh pick for a late-season fall every year.

It gets extra hard from here...

Step 2f: Auburn, despite getting spanked at home by Arkansas, is still a real threat to the BCS standings. They have Arkansas State, Georgia, and Alabama left. The only real hope for a loss is that rivalry game at Alabama, but the Tide are too weak this year to do any damage. But just imagine the furor that would engulf Razorback Nation if Auburn slipped in barely ahead of Arkansas despite the Hogs being the champs of the best conference in the nation and having embarrassed the Tigers on a national stage. There would be riots on an unforeseen scale in Fayetteville. The whole city would burn to the ground. So for the welfare of tens of thousands of Arkansans, Auburn needs to lose in some way just to prevent such a doomsday scenario from playing out.

Step 2g: Either Ohio State or Michigan needs to drop a game then beat the other to end the regular season. Michigan gets Ball State and Indiana. Ohio State gets Illinois and Northwestern. Hmmn, no losses to be found there. So I guess the only hope is that the loser of the unofficial national championship game slides down enough spots to let Arkansas and Florida jump it in the BCS ranks (since the Gators would still be up there prior to the SEC Championship Game the next weekend). That's a stretch, to say the least.

So, is it possible? Sure, as long as the laundry list of stuff above plays out. So I don't guess those ESPN nutjobs are as far off their rocker as I suspected. But probable? I'm putting my money on the meteor. With the unofficial championship being at Ohio State, I think the Buckeyes will survive that test and punch their ticket to the real thing. From there it gets dicey. I expect the Big East to become a nonfactor in the championship race, and so either Florida or Auburn -- whoever wins the SEC championship -- will get the other spot. But neither can beat Ohio State. Buckeyes 38, Gators 20.